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Prediction of large desalting plant availability factor
The amount of water that a desalting plant can produce each year is directly related to the availability (actual annual production capability/nominal annual production capability) of the plant. This is in turn related to the reliability of each of its major components. An analysis was made of the reliability of multistage flash desalting plant components such as brine heater, heat recovery and heat reject tube bundles, pumps, evaporator enclosures, vacuum system and instruments. The most important of these components was found to be the tube bundles.In order to obtain a basis for analysis, it was necessary to hypothesize a model to describe tubing failures. Using this model, the tubing reliability was determined by “extreme value statistics” for tube failure rate of 0.1% failure in 10 years. For this model and failure rate, the overall plant availability was found to be 95%.