view in publisher's site

High-resolution net load forecasting for micro-neighbourhoods with high penetration of renewable energy sources

Highlights•Evaluation of a model for micro-scale residential net load prediction.•Short-term predictions (24 h ahead) with high temporal resolution (15-min intervals).•Residential load forecasting for scenarios with solar energy production.•A key performance index allowing to compare prediction models for net load values.•A systematic approach to feature selection in the context of lagged signal.•This practical solution can be applied.AbstractThough extensive, the literature on electrical load forecasting lacks reports on studies focused on existing residential micro-neighbourhoods comprising small numbers of single-family houses equipped with solar panels. This paper provides a full description of an ANN-based model designed to predict short-term high-resolution (15-min intervals) micro-scale residential net load profiles. Since it seems especially relevant due to the specificity of local autocorrelations in load signal, in this paper we put stress on the systematic approach to feature selection in the context of lagged signal. We performed a case study of a real micro-neighbourhood comprising only 75 single-family houses. The obtained average prediction error was equivalent to 5.4 per cent of the maximal measured net load. The issues, i.e.: (1) the feasibility of micro-scale residential load forecasting taking into account renewable energy penetration, (2) the feasibility to predict net load with dense temporal resolution of 15 min, (3) the feature selection problem, (4) the proposed prosumption- and comparison-oriented prediction model key performance measure, could be of interest to engineers designing energy balancing systems for local smart grids.

پیش‌بینی بار شبکه با رزولوشن بالا برای محله‌های کوچک با نفوذ بالای منابع انرژی تجدیدپذیر

ترجمه شده با


پر ارجاع‌ترین مقالات مرتبط:

  • مقاله Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • ترجمه مقاله Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • مقاله مهندسی انرژی و فن‌آوری قدرت
  • ترجمه مقاله مهندسی انرژی و فن‌آوری قدرت
  • مقاله Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • ترجمه مقاله Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • مقاله مهندسی برق و الکترونیک
  • ترجمه مقاله مهندسی برق و الکترونیک
سفارش ترجمه مقاله و کتاب - شروع کنید

95/12/18 - با استفاده از افزونه دانلود فایرفاکس و کروم٬ چکیده مقالات به صورت خودکار تشخیص داده شده و دکمه دانلود فری‌پیپر در صفحه چکیده نمایش داده می شود.